Lump sum vs. staggered
Compare the 5-year return distribution between investing all capital immediately or staggering it.
Prepared by Groupe Conseil Sabin Painchaud
Prepared on September 21, 2026
Your parameters
Your parameters
| Statistic | Immediate | Staggered |
|---|---|---|
| Average return | 10.40 % | 9.67 % |
| Standard deviation | 8.19 % | 7.43 % |
| Minimum | -12.71 % | -14.87 % |
| Maximum | 28.30 % | 24.86 % |
Distribution of annualized returns over 5 years (94 historical periods, 1928-2025)
Annualized return (%)
“This comparison is provided for illustration only. The returns used are the actual annual returns of the S&P 500 index (dividends reinvested) between 1928 and 2025; each scenario corresponds to an actual historical 5-year consecutive period. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This result does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation.”
Calculation assumptions
- Returns are the actual annual returns of the S&P 500 index, dividends reinvested, from 1928 to 2025 (source: historical data compiled by NYU Stern). Data prior to 1957 comes from precursor indices reconstructed by that source.
- Each scenario is a rolling window of 5 consecutive years from this history (e.g. 1928-1932, 1929-1933, …), for a total of 94 scenarios.
- Within a calendar year, the monthly return is approximated as constant, derived from that year’s actual annual return (no monthly return data is used).
- “Immediate” strategy: the entire capital is invested in month 0 and stays invested for the whole period.
- “Staggered” strategy: capital is split into equal tranches invested one month at a time over the chosen number of months; the not-yet-invested portion is assumed to earn the rate on uninvested funds until invested.
- The annualized return of each scenario is computed from the final value at the end of the 5 years, for both strategies.
- No tax, transaction cost, or management fee is taken into account. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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